The Gerber
Statistic
The Gerber
Statistic
Hudson Bay seeks research opportunities with academia, through which we can share our unique portfolio construction philosophy.
Hudson Bay has co-authored a series of white papers with Dr. Harry Markowitz, winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, in connection with his pioneering work in Modern Portfolio Theory. This collaboration reflects our belief that Hudson Bay’s investment process is an enhanced application of Dr. Markowitz’s framework in a multi-asset, multi-strategy alpha portfolio hedge fund environment.
Hudson Bay Tribute
to Dr. Markowitz
13/04/2026
One common refrain in markets and media is that “stocks are expensive” with some even calling today’s market a speculative bubble. While we agree that the P/E multiple is elevated relative to history, we don’t see high P/E as a binding constraint against valuation expanding further. Rather, AI-related technological progress and resulting broadbased productivity gains could lead to renewed market optimism and a commensurate “sentiment premium” in the market, along the lines of the 1985-2001 period. Such optimism, combined with current levels of interest rates, could justify an S&P 500 level of $9,000 (+34% relative to S&P trading at $6,7001) or more over time. Investors who myopically focus instead on the recent history of P/E multiples risk missing out on such generational upside. Moreover, the options market prices a mere ~8% probability of the S&P reaching that lofty level in the next two years. We think the true probability is much higher. At Hudson Bay, we invest holistically, question the experts, and remain aware of macro trends. With this paper, and its companion published by Hudson Bay Senior Economic Strategist Nouriel Roubini, we invite readers to join us in this approach.
13/04/2026
While the consensus market outlook since the April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff shock has been pessimistic about the US economic outlook, this pessimism ignores how market discipline, institutional guardrails, and the scale of AI-led investment — spanning advanced semiconductors, automation, and the data-center build-out — are likely to outweigh any stagflationary drag.
13/04/2026
President Donald Trump's reelection presages dramatic changes in the global trading and financial system. This study catalogues a variety of tools available to the new Administration, from tariffs to currency accords. Each tool has different potential market consequences, and there are steps the Administration can take to mitigate those consequences.